We were talking about the neutral game and in my case up close neutral game. All of these moves are potentials for getting her out of the neutral game. I never undervalued the potential once you've gotten out of the neutral game (in CQC), but that doesn't take away the truth that it is hard to get out of it compared to with other characters.
Never the less you kinda answer the initial question quite well with these numbers. She is slower than almost everyone with 13 frame mids. Further on her 10 frame jab can be blocked afterwards unless she high counter hit (and from the looks of the frame data chart even are -6), making it a very bad counter move.
We can take this theoretical:
"Neutral game up close (start of battle)
Christie
High punch 9 frames vs 10 frame high Hitomi
High kick 13 frames vs irrelevant
Mid Punch 11 Frame midpunch vs Hitomi's 13 frame
Mid Kick 12 frame kick (crush high?) vs Hitomi's 13 frame
Both have 14 frame low punch (even trade?)
Special note: Hitomi can parry both high and midpunch.
Judged from this
Christie's possibility to succeed with High p is >75% if they trade blows.
Christie's possibility to succeed with High k is 0% if they trade blows.
Christie's possibility to succeed with Mid punch is >75% if they trade blows.
Christie's possibility to succeed with Mid kick is 100% if they trade blows.
Christie's possibility to succeed with Low punch is >25% if they trade blows.
So, this is the odds "if they trade blows". Judged from this Christie clearly has some good opening options against Hitomi. However, if both characters know the numbers, they'll also see that Christie's options quickly boil down to mid or high punch, or unsafe mid kick. Thus the opening option has a high possibility to be throw punished on block after opener, or can be punch parried.
Thus Hitomi can neutralize 2 options in 1 with punch parry, or block mid k for throw punish or even block for later punch parry upon reaction.
Of course, the Christie player could also know this, then the option could very well be to throw, and so on
All in all though, Christie players would most likely either attack or throw. Holding is less attractive as they'll have to guess between 4 options, as with striking their odds (if they guess Hitomi will strike) may be 75~100%. Hitomi's case the 3 "real" opening options for Christie may boil down to 2 with punch parry, where the mid k hold may also be an advanced hold, in other words if one guess right, the dmg done will be good. However, the option of throwing for Hitomi is low, as Christie would most likely not hold or block."
I'm sure you've read this before, and it is simply breaking down the math. However, It is clear that it's Christie making the moves and if facing an opponent of equal or higher caliber then he/she knows these numbers. In other words Hitomi has to beat her in the mind games in order to get out of the neutral game. She'd be at disadvantage before that happens. Most people do this through attempting a block string, and Christie can do some pretty good delaying or free canceling herself.
Anyways, this is also just Christie mind you, other characters has different moves that beat Hitomi in similar fashion, but with different outcomes and different percentages. Never the less Hitomi usually has a bad platform to start off on when in the neutral game. You simply can't deny this. And again, yes, if she gets out of it she is awesome in CQC, but that is an "if".
Anyways, this is getting stretched out. Also I am guessing or it seems like your statement came on the basis of a misunderstanding, and didn't cover that we where talking about the neutral game and not CQC in general. (Also it is getting on the edge of MU-discussion in general as we are not speaking specific characters enough.)
Strange though. Those who say Ayane, Ryu or the likes are easy to use initially utter get spanked!
I think there's another character like that, hmm... oh yeah Ein.
Ye well, Ein hasn't really got me convinced. His lacking CQC just made me have to drop him in this game all together, as that style doesn't apply to me. I feel like he is in transition where TK doesn't really know where to take him other than away from the God he was earlier. Guess I won't be convinced of otherwise before I see him in some high level tournament play. Might happen soon. I mean I see the tools being there, I've just not seen anyone operating them at a good enough level for high level play yet (go for it Tenryuga, 8000 cash price waiting!
).
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