So, I figured out a way to get an opponent BT in certain situations that gives Tengu a 50/50 with a guaranteed combo based on if they SE fastest/fast or slow/not at all. Counters are irrelevant for this setups as well
I'll share it in a while after I do more testing, but a good BT combo is
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This setup gives you a 50/50 shot of getting anywhere from 128 damage (if they don't do anything) to 145 damage (if they try to attack, which some people might considering the other option she has which I'll also share in a bit) to 167 damage (if they try to throw, which in all honesty will probably never happen).
EDIT: Alright, so I tested it out and it works on people too, and they can't dash out of it, guard it, or anything of the sort. It requires a ceiling, that being the only requirement for the combo, but it does amazing damage and has amazing mixup potential as well, where you can even go for a 1 guess CB if you want (if they don't SE on fastest).
If your opponent is slow at staggering or just doesn't do it at all, follow up her
with
. The punch should whiff, then use the aforementioned finisher on them, which is all guaranteed.
If they're decent at staggering or entirely perfect at it, use
after the throw which, again, should whiff, and follow it up with the same setup.
You can also use
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launch at the end (knowledge courtesy of Silent Screams) or a 1 guess CB where they either counter it or they don't. If they try to counter, just reset the situation with another
. I just learned that they can SE the CB if they do it on fastest, so you're probably better off going for the launch, but you can still go for the throw again after
if you really want, and it will probably connect.
Obviously this can't be used everywhere, but considering she gets around 200 damage in a roofed area with a simple 50/50 is absurd. And hell, if you don't want to go for it, just opt for the guaranteed damage instead. Either way, it's a win/win for you.