As shinryu said, I like to go for the mount guarantee, but of course that will inevitably put them on the ground. Ideally you would want to time the mid-kick counter for another potential mount loop and time the 3H+K on low for a similar loop, but u can be pretty safe just using 3H+K, crush the low kick and then u can repeat to force tech(which shinryu actually mentioned in one of the other threads), if they stand attacking/grabbing same thing, mid-kick will knock you down and reverse the situation, if they stand blocking it's a surprisingly safe -4 (good time to SST).
Theoretically, best counter you might face is a timed counter or standing side step: completely vulnerable. Of course it's also fairly slow at 23 frames, so it's pretty easily timed when they figure it out, but honestly I'm not sure how much someone who's sidestepping can be thrown off, haven't actually fought someone that figured it out consistently yet...
(I mean things like using it too early intentionally so you miss altogether and recover at neutral to their counter/SS, or at an advantage for a grab etc.)
Pretty reliable in my experience at least, though I've noticed the crush timing can be awkward, I could swear I've been hit out of the peak of the jump by some lows...