Alright, here's my current position on Hayabusa's match-ups. As a heads up: it's sorta long. Like, 12 pages in Microsoft Word long. Not really sure how many people are gonna read the whole thing, if any, but I like to be complete. Obviously, if you have any questions, concerns, or want further elaboration on anything I've said here, just let me know. Some are bound to disagree with me, and you're welcome to, just try and present your reservations in an intelligible, civilized, non caveman-esque fashion.
So, without further adieu, I present to you, Hayabusa match-ups!
Akira 5-5
Akira has great tools to counter-act Hayabusa’s range tools. His sidestep tools are very proficient, and some of his offensive moves have surprising reach. Additionally, Akira has the speed advantage and frame advantage/safety on Hayabusa, and thus definitely has the advantage from neutral and in opening the opponent up. Additionally, he nets very admirable damage from his set-ups, allowing him to play the stun game or bypass it, giving him mix-up freedom so you don’t get the “easy read reward.” Additionally, Ryu’s teleport is blown-up heavily by Akira’s BT P+K. Akira doesn’t really have to respect Hayabusa’s shenanigans at all. Both can utilize walls and furniture tech quite well. So what does Hayabusa bring to the table? First, he has the superior throw power. Second, he has the superior hold power. In almost all of Akira’s set-ups, he must toss out a punch at some point, and that means that Ryu gets a chance for an Izuna reversal. Like Akira, Ryu can play stun-launch quite well if he chooses. Now normally, I’d say this actually adds up to 4-6 Akira. However, there is one final consideration: stages. Stages are a huge factor here, with Ryu being able to net over 100 damage from a single punch hold, and that doesn’t even require CH/HiC status. In stages like the Home where you’re not frequently trying to close distance, Akira is doing his “up-close-and-personal” pressure. This means he will be tossing out those punches, and you will get chances for those hold reversals quite often. I believe stages can actually push this 6-4 in favor of Ryu, particularly stages with ceilings. As such, I feel like overall this deserves 5-5.
Alpha 5-5
Admittedly, I don’t have a ton of experience in this match-up. But what I do have seems to come out as 5-5, and analyzing their tools seems to support that. Alpha has the superior speed, superior mix-ups, superior throw power, superior OHs and has some nasty range/keepout tools that Hayabusa has to respect. Hayabusa, however, still plays the range game better than Alpha. Additionally, he has the better holds, environment use and better oki. This really is one of the match-ups where Hayabusa can maintain pressure throughout the entire fight, which is quite scary. Thus, I view it as 5-5
Ayane 4-6
I feel like this has already been elaborated on before, so I’ll just make it brief. Ayane is one of the few characters who can really out-space Busa with heavy feints and whiff punishes. She can intercept his approaches well, and can come at him from more angels than he can to her. That said, Hayabusa is still *better* at managing her movement than some other characters are. Up close, it’s a shoe-in for Ayane. Superior mix-up, superior crushes, speed advantage, etc. Ayane doesn’t have to rely on any particular hit levels to open you up, nor does she have to play the stun game (she can also delay attacks making her tricky to hold). So while Ryu has the superior holds, they are very tricky to incorporate. Throw damage is in favor of Hayabusa, though not by a huge amount. Ayane has some devilish throw properties and nasty ways to bait them. Ayane also has superior oki, imo. If he chooses to go this route, Hayabusa does have the superior stuns, however, and he does have a higher per-strike damage output. Hayabusa can win this, but it definitely favors Ayane.
Bass 5-5
First of all, it’s rare that you just get a genuine, all-around speed advantage on someone as Hayabusa. So right off the bat, that helps him here, particularly at match-start. After that, things become trickier for Ryu, since Bass actually has some nice range options. Additionally, Bass has superior damage output, superior throw damage and superior OHs. He also has lows that open people up and can force someone to commit to a decision better than Ryu can. Note also that Bass is a super heavyweight, whereas Ryu is a midweight, which affects damage distribution, here. However, the most important thing here is that once he gets started, Bass can maintain heavy pressure throughout the round. After Hayabusa gets started, his best options cause situations where you’re put back into relative neutral again. Overall, I feel like the pros and cons of each balance each other out.
Bayman 5-5
This is really an interesting match. Before you say that Ryu has the speed advantage, he really doesn’t. Bayman’s jab will still beat Ryu’s mid, just as Ryu’s jab will beat Bayman’s. However, Hayabusa’s mid will actually lose to Bayman’s because it’s less damage. Ryu doesn’t hold a speed advantage over Bayman. Bayman has the superior mix-up, he can open people up better, and honestly, he has superior oki. Additionally, Hayabusa’s range tools are really stupid in this fight due to the tankroll. Even 236P and WR H+K can be countered by this with good timing. So you’re not getting away with Ryu’s dumb stuff here. Along that vein, Bayman has the superior OHs, and is one of the few characters whose holds actually rival Ryu’s, with expert holds on all hit levels and a mid parry. His throws are very powerful, and additionally, after all combo throw/hold breaks, Bayman is actually at advantage, giving him even more momentum in his pressure game. He’s also a super heavyweight, limiting Ryu’s damage in some cases. But it’s not all fun and games for Bayman. These options, while powerful, do force him to commit. Tossing out OHs, parries and holds is very risky when you have Ryu’s level of throw damage threatening you. Furthermore, Bayman is put at huge risk throwing out his tankroll, due to the fact that Ryu now has a low throw Izuna which allows him to crush the OH and get 120 points of punish damage. Ryu also gets the stun-> launch advantage, and as usual dominates the deep stun game. Both are scary opponents for the other. They equal each other out.
Brad Wong 5-5
So, this guy. First of all, I’d like to say that Brad Wong actually has a better long range punish than Ryu (running P/236P). It can be sidestepped like most of Ryu’s options, but it’s much safer (-3 to -8 depending on range, meaning you can’t always tell if it’s safe or not). I would like to reiterate that it is range dependent, even 236P. Even the standalone version can be safe. If you don’t believe me, go test it for yourself. Thus, it makes you guess, unless you’re playing with move details on. For comparison, Ryu’s comparable move requires he be in ongyoin stance and is -15 on block. Brad’s also puts him in a better position for follow-ups should it whiff. Brad’s floor stance allows him to evade or simply punish Ryu’s long-range options with minimal risk (particularly the teleports), and he has other keep-out options that are universal FUs to Ryu’s long range approaches as well. Ryu does have a speed advantage up close, but relying on that can be a poor decision with Brad’s crushes. Brad can open his opponent up better than Ryu, he has more mix-ups, better evasion, OHs, BT tools that destroy the ongyoin parry (not that that’s anything new), not to mention that 3-hit CB that you must respect. Many of his attacks do provide lurch, however, allowing an ongyoin parry to safely eject Ryu from close-range pressure. As usual, Ryu is bringing hold and throw damage to the table. His Izunas, particularly 33T, can be used to blow up Brad’s OH options. And, like Brad can punish Ryu at range for whiffing, Ryu can do the same to Brad. Ryu also has superior environment bonuses, and some true mids that Brad should respect. Overall, I don’t see either being able to dominate the other.
Christie 4-6
I feel like this one is kind of obvious. Christie absolutely wrecks Hayabusa at neutral. She is much faster, has nasty crushes, nice lows to open you up, mix-ups for days, very high evasion, footsies and pressure options, etc. Hayabusa does have the superior damage, particularly regarding throws, holds and environment bonuses. However, in this game, dominating the neutral game controls the battle so much that I don’t feel like Ryu’s advantages come close to outweighing his weaknesses here. 4P is a tracking, 15 frame mid (thank god), so he does have something to fight against Jak. Options are limited though, as on NH you’re going to want to follow it up with 2P (negative on NH), 6P (negative on NH with SEing), P (high knockdown) or K (knockdown), all of which are soundly beaten with a standing block. This isn’t vanilla where Ryu had his old 4PK. Christie’s Jak is also very effective at neutralizing Hayabusa’s ranged approaches. This is 4-6 Christie. I feel like that’s pretty obvious.
Ein 5-5
This is not 6-4 Hayabusa. It just isn’t. The argument there essentially relies on the premise that Ein has a harder time opening someone up than Ryu. We’ll get to that in a minute, but first let’s discuss the rest of the MU. Speed-wise, they’re pretty evenly matched. Throw-wise, Hayabusa does do better with grappler-speed throws and higher damage. However, Ein has a standing and crouching OH (Ein’s standing OH shouldn’t be compared to Ryu’s WR4T and 8T for obvious reasons), and honestly, with his recent throw buffs, his throw damage isn’t all that much lower than Ryu’s. You can argue environment throws (Lost World), but keep in mind that Ein’s 33T against a danger zone wall is insanely brutal. It’s not a huge compliment to Ryu, here. Ein excels in string mix-ups (lows among other things). Both have valid stun-launch/stun-bound options. Neither of them do great with frame advantage. Ryu does better with stun-chaining. Their range-options are both nasty. Ein excels at keepout and is fantastic at playing that way. If he gets a health advantage, he can successfully turtle away from Hayabusa, an option not everyone has. Ein has deceptively long reach and some impressive lurch with certain multi-hit strings which he can use as a keep-out, gap-closer or intercept. So, now back to close-range and opening the opponent up. Ein has the better pokes (boom, I just pissed off Ein players). Let me explain. Ein has superior string mix-ups (not that they’re amazing, but when your competition is Ryu, you don’t have to try all that hard). Ein has superior lows (either from strings or from things like 2P). Ein has a safe 13 frame mid poke. Those are simple pokes. For Ryu to get something like frame advantage against a standing guard, he has to commit to a very long, easily-interrupted attack, force an ongyoin transition or commit to a low that causes so much pushback any follow-up attempts are basically as risky for you as they are for the opponent. When you get +1 from a 13 frame attack against someone of virtually equal speed, that is extremely useful. Ein does exceed here at neutral in close-quarters. The reason that Ein isn’t dominating this fight is because Ryu excels in holds. Unlike throws/OHs where Ein keeps a competitive footing, Ryu’s holds are just better. Izuna holds are damn scary, and he’s got an expert mid kick hold for boost. Weighing all this, I am very confident that this is an equal match-up.
Eliot 6-4
I’m going to make this brief. Eliot has some ways to apply a seemingly endless flurry of offensive force. However, it requires that he punch a lot. Ryu loves punches. He eats them for breakfast. Furthermore, with the nerf to Eliot 7P, he no longer has the speed advantage against Ryu (they’re equal, for most intensive purposes). He’s got some range tools, but Ryu’s are better. He’s got some damage, but Ryu’s is better. He’s got some mix-ups, but Hayabusa’s got Izunas. He has some bothersome throws (namely 214T and 236T), but they don’t compete with Izunas. His hold damage is not on-par with Ryu’s either. What he does have is a mid parry and lots of string variations and some dirty delays that can make him difficult to hold/read. Doing so frequently will allow him to reset throw you and maintain his pressure. Eliot’s got what he needs to win this, but I don’t see it being in his favor. Hayabusa holds the advantage here.
Gen Fu 4-6
Do I really have to say anything here? Fine, I’ll make a small blurb here just for
TaijiMonk. So, Gen Fu has the speed advantage and oki dominance. He’s a crush machine and controls in close quarters, playing the stun game well, the launch game well, and the guard pressure game well. He reaps insane damage and gets stupendous rewards quickly with minimal risk. His launches can lead into resets, should he choose (can eliminate wake-up kicks anyway so he doesn’t have to go that route), has two reset throws to carry pressure momentum. He also has a mid parry because… well, I don’t know why. He just does. Meanwhile, Hayabusa has Izunas and some range options he rarely gets to use because Gen Fu can hound him at match-start and maintain pressure throughout the match. Hayabusa’s offense initiators are limited to mids, since Gen crushes highs nearly perpetually and Ryu’s lows are garbage. Gen’s parry shuts down his mids. So you’re essentially opting between a raging dangerous throw or a mid that’ll probably be parried. So, yeah. 4-6?
Hayate 4-6
Alright, alright… I get it: you’re mad. And you won’t agree with me even if the Flying Spaghetti Monster revealed himself just to tell you that I was right. But, I’m going to explain why I feel this is in Hayate’s favor. Let’s break this down. Hayate has superior speed. Hayate has superior mixups. Hayate has better crushes and evasion (it would take a while to explain why in every case, but Hayate has a reliable command sidestep, 15 frame high-crushing mid kick, etc). Both have oki options. Hayate has superior range. That’s right. You heard me. Hayate’s range tools are better. He has multi-hit strings with tracking that cover huge distance (which he can cancel) and he can back in and out of areas with wind dash and other tools very well. Hayate has superior gimmicks. His teleport has less recovery than Ryu’s and it comes in a form that’s a more legit mix-up (when you see Ryu going wavy arms from ongyoin, you know it’s a teleport coming). His wind dash options also sport near-identical animations, making it a guess what he’ll do coming out of it. And, these options can’t all be neutralized with one response as Ryu’s can (free-stepping up/down). Ryu does have better throws, but not by a ton. Hayate’s still net good damage, both as a 12 frame HiC throw, a 12 frame juggle throw and for punish throws. Don’t get caught up on “the Raijin is hard to do.” We’re talking top-level play, here. Top-level players aren’t held back by move execution on something like this. Overall, Hayabusa does have the better holds, Hayate does have a nasty mid kick hold, but overall, Ryu’s are better. So, where does this leave us? Well, Hayate controls the pace of the match up close and at range. He has more mix-ups and forces more guesses, with only a slight disadvantage in the strike/throw damage department, and a notable hit in hold damage. We should know by now that controlling the neutral game and the ability to open someone up and maintain pressure goes a long way in this game. I feel Hayate’s advantages here outweigh his disadvantages. That is why personally I feel this is 6-4, even when I’m sure most Hayate players think it’s 5-5.
Helena 4-6
So, this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Helena is technically a bit slower, but she more than makes up for it with crushes. Her hold 3P, for example, crushes mid and high during certain frames, including my 6P. And at 13 frames (20 damage), it beats out literally every strike I have. My only options are block, hold or SS. So Helena doesn’t really give a damn that she’s a tad bit slower. She has insane delays, great mix-up pressure, oki pressure, some damn tricky safety (as Requiem has illustrated many-a-time) and gets resets for days to maintain momentum. She essentially has the neutral game advantage and the ability to maintain pressure after it begins very, very well. Ryu really is forced into trying to guess out with holds and other means. Trying to initiate an offense from Ryu is tough here due to her crushing highs, crushing mids (BKO duck, etc.), and him having garbage lows. It should also be noted that Helena is heavier than Ryu for some reason. Ryu’s advantages here are in hold damage, throw damage and ranged tools. Helena can be tricky to close in on, but Ryu does have long-range options that she must respect. Ultimately, I don’t feel these make up for how difficult it is for Ryu to begin an offense. Helena controls this match-up and the favor goes to her.
Hitomi 5-5
Hitomi is basically same-old same-old here. She has some tricky mix-ups, pressure options, resets, decent speed (though not great), some surprising safety, exceptional delays, some nice oki tools, mid/high punch parry, yadda yadda. And these are all nice, except that they’re not exceptionally proficient at shutting down Hayabusa in particular moreso than they would any other character. Hitomi is just a well-rounded character, and you’re weighing that against Ryu who is a heavily imbalanced character. His holds, throws etc. are superior to hers, while his mixups are much weaker. Really, the most threatening things Hitomi has here are delays, resets and the usual mix-ups which make her tricky to hold and retaliate against. But, Ryu makes up for this if he does manage to initiate the stun game and starts tossing out his damage output. Both their strengths work against the other, while their weaknesses are prevalent as usual. Nothing too crazy going on in this match-up.
Jacky 5-5
Honestly, I feel like I need more experience in this match-up to make a final decision. What I can tell from my limited experience is that Jack excels up close with speed, safety and mix-ups and that Hayabusa excels at range with his sniper junk (big surprise). If someone wants to enlighten me further on this match-up, I’m all ears.
Jann Lee 5-5
Jann Lee has speed and mix-ups going for him here. He also has some aggressive pressure tools (like dragon gunner). He nets huge damage unless you’re vigilant in stopping him, but making a move out of turn will only put you into deeper trouble. Jann Lee is also surprisingly effective at keep-out, enough so that I don’t feel Ryu “dominates” at long range. But, Ryu has his Izunas and enough stun pressure than Jann doesn’t want to get whacked. Jann also isn’t the best at crushing and uses quite a number of highs in his different set-ups, so Ryu can utilize tools like 6P+K and 4K with a greater success rate than he can against other opponents. In the end, it’s the same story. Ryu’s still weaker from neutral, but if he turns things around, he can be quite scary.
Kasumi 4-6
Kasumi is Kasumi. She doesn’t magically change into a different character when fighting Ryu. So, you’re going to hear most of the predictable stuff here. She’s lightning fast and able to apply pressure from close and medium range. She has excellent mix-ups and some nice juggles and throw damage for how well she can initiate an offense. She’s also quite mobile, and has some very strange properties (such as unholdable attacks) that can be tricky to work around. But, these are offset by lower per-strike damage and a good deal of unsafety. Ryu likes unsafety because his punish throws are, well, punishing. Ryu has the superior damage output in strikes, throws and holds. He takes advantage over her at long range, but doesn’t do so well in close/mid-range. He also nets more from the environment. What really gives him trouble, however, is Kasumi’s parry, which is far superior to his own. This combined with the general importance of controlling the neutral game makes me feel like this match-up is in her favor.
Kokoro 4-6
I’m not sure what I can say here that won’t make all the Kokoro people flip their feces and riot in the streets trying to explain why everything Kokoro has can be shut down oh-so-easily. Kokoro has very high pressure and dealing with it is not as simple as “sidestep everything.” Kokoro absolutely dominates the neutral game. And by “dominates,” I mean really, really dominates. She’s got the speed advantage. She’s got the poke advantage. Keeping up-to-speed with Kokoro as Ryu is like swatting bullets with a sword. Up close she applies pressure. She applies mix-ups. She applies guard breaks. She applies resets. She applies sabakis and some nasty CB junk. And if at any point you mess up she nails your nuts to the wall. “Oh, well at least Ryu has his long-range option…” NOPE! Kokoro covers incredible distance very quickly and is an absolute nightmare in intercepting and negating Ryu’s ranged approaches. If this were based on offense merit alone, Kokoro would basically be eating free Ryus for breakfast. However, lucky for Hayabusa, he’s got defense. His parry works notably well against Kokoro since her attacks cover so much distance. This lets him jump up behind her at a distance where if she attacks, she may whiff, and he gets to punish. Furthermore, Kokoro likes her some punches. Punchy-punch-punch; all through the day. Izuna likes… er, I mean… Ryu likes Izunas. Hooah-hooah-toooaaah! All through the day. Ryu also weighs more than she does, which boosts his bound potential in particular.
edit: This match feels really dumb and it is. Ryu is put on defense and told to "hold right," when in reality holding Ryu's options and strings is easier than holding Kokoro's. So you may get more damage from Ryu, but it's not accurately compensating for the effort he has to put in. It's just a struggle for Ryu through-and-through. Kokoro takes it here.
Leifang 5-5
Leifang can be a headache with Ryu, just as she can with anyone else. That said she has some drawbacks here, and in some ways is the antithesis of Ryu. She does have the speed advantage and the mix-up advantage up close. She’s also a fair deal safer than Ryu with most of her pokes, and has some tricky delays, crushes and evasive attacks that can keep her going. She also has some admirable OHs and throws, and a respectable oki game. What she’s lacking in Ryu excels at. Leifang’s stun potential isn’t on par with Ryu’s, her damage output is typically inferior, and her long-range options are lacking. Some of Leifang’s trickier techniques also involve some risk, such as 3KP+K, OHs, parries/sabakis and lows. As such, Ryu can shut her down with fewer proper reads than he can many other characters. They both have impressive defensive potential, with Leifang having an advantage I feel with all expert holds, a mid/high P sabaki and mid parry. So basically, Leifang has a lot of options that can prove very troubling, whereas Ryu has less options that are typically more devastating if they are successful.
Leon 5-5
Oh, Leon. Leon gets higher damage on the 13 frame mid, so he wins there. Ryu’s high is 1 frame faster, but also leads into less options than Leon’s 11 frame high, which has some scary mix-ups. So for speed, like with Bayman, Ryu is not faster. Leon is in general safer, with several strings at -1 or positive guard breaks on charge. Additionally, Leon’s mix-ups are stronger. That may sound strange, since Leon is the most infamous mid P hound in the game, but allow me to explain. From his jab, Leon can use the following options to beat a guard: P6PchargeP (-1 to +14), P6P2K (low with +frames on NH), as well as several mixups to punish anyone trying to hold those options, including a high launch into his air throw. Ryu has this to beat a standing guard: PP2KchargeP (-12 to +7). For threshold extenders, Leon has 7K (high kick) H+K (mid kick) and to an extent 3K as good stun delayers. He can access a CB great with stun->2K->3K->CB (Ryu must rely on a very slow mid punch for his guaranteed CB, and doesn’t incorporate lows into threshold well at all). Leon can ignore threshold for stun-launch, just as Ryu can. Leon can manipulate the environment exceptionally well, in some cases even better than Ryu. Leon has access to great OHs that Ryu does not. Leon’s charges and delays can make him very tricky to hold. Leon has oki that can compete with Ryu’s. Leon is substantially heavier than Ryu. And yes, the statement you’ve all been waiting for: Leon predictably nets more damage than Ryu in most circumstances, since he’s the strongest man in the world. Leon also dominates in throws. His Desert Falcon technically nets 2 less damage than a full Izuna, but since it tosses people so far, you typically receive more than the Izuna when combined with environment damage. He has a bonkers 8-frame punish throw (Dervish Throw), and two very effective low throws to show. But, it’s not all easy street for Leon. First, his OHs provide substantial risk, particularly 33T, which is heavily countered by Ryu’s 33T (surprise!). Second, he does toss out an above-average level of punches, particularly mid punches. These open him up for Izuna holds. Third, Leon is not the most proficient crusher. Ryu’s highs can be used to great effect, with his main risk being in respect to 33T and 33P. Finally, Leon suffers at range here quite a bit. He can try to bait Ryu into some whiffs, as some of Leon’s punishes have surprising range. But ultimately, Leon is at a clear disadvantage here. This is more prominent than in most match-ups, because both Ryu and Leon send their opponents flying. This causes them to enter medium to long range more frequently than most fights do. So, in the end, I feel it’s an equal match-up.
Lisa 5-5
Okay, we’re back into that weird Bass-zone where Ryu is actually faster than his opponent again, which is a pretty big factor helping him here, since he’s not locked into defensive play. Unless Lisa is BT in which case she gets that 12 frame butt, but whatever. Both have some dirty long range options, neither particularly overwhelming the other. Up close, Hayabusa has a speed advantage, but Lisa has a mix-up/crush advantage. Lisa has far superior OHs, and excels slightly in the throw department. Hayabusa has deeper stuns, and his stun-launch capacity is more damaging. Hayabusa can typically abuse the environment a bit better, as well. They both have trade-offs, with tools to counter-act the other. It feels quite even.
Marie Rose 6-4
So, it may be a bit early to set a match-up for this, but honestly, I feel pretty confident about this one. Marie has the speed, the safety, the sabaki, the OHs, the BT OH reset and the annoying voice. Ryu has the damage, damage, damage and damage. Now, normally I’d venture that Marie does better with holds, mainly because her non-expert holds are more punishing, plus she has the option to go expert on all hit levels. But, Marie really likes mid punches and high punches to maintain her safety and extend her thresholds. It really does open her up for Izunas. She’s also one of the few characters who suffers with lows like Hayabusa. She does have ways around it that Hayabusa doesn’t necessarily (24/7 safety, 6K2K, etc.) but still, not having that as a huge threat as you normally do is freeing. Furthermore, Marie chokes at range. While she can skirt around Hayabusa’s braindead teleports with the minuet, he still has a ton of options to close in that out-class her at distance. She has some nice guarantees, but her environment utilization is not nearly on par with Hayabusa’s. Hayabusa treats her like a less threatening Leifang. I feel like his advantage here is pretty clear and apparent.
Mila 4-6
Well, Mila’s faster, safer, has better pokes, better oki, better mix-ups, better frame advantage, feints, nets crazy-huge damage, throws you into reset-scenarios, neutral on chain breaks (seriously? With a 12 frame mid? Neutral?), range options that can competently compete with and counter-act Ryu’s and reigns superior in the OH category. Meanwhile, Ryu gets Izunas. So I dunno. If that sounds equal to you, so be it. But to me, this match-up is in Mila’s favor without a doubt.
Momiji 4-6
So I already discussed this one in depth a while back, so I’ll just re-post the last part of that post here: Basically, Hayabusa gets snubbed by Momiji at long-range, snubbed at short range, less mix-ups, less safety, reduced gimmick efficiency, some trade-offs in the stun department and comparable oki, and in return he gets better damage output. When factoring how that would look in a MU, consider the power vs speed/mixup/rushdown/neutral dominating balance in the game at large. Ultimately, dominating the neutral game, having good mix-ups, having safety, etc. is what makes you excel in this game. In this instance, Momiji takes that over Hayabusa.
Pai 4-6
So, this is another one I think I might get some pushback on. Let me first say that I think we all understand the basics of what’s going on here: Pai hits faster, Ryu hits harder. That’s pretty obvious. Pai is safer, faster and has far better mixups and the potential to maintain momentum. Hayabusa has trouble landing a hit, but when he does, it hurts a lot more. It’s also pretty safe to say that Ryu does better at long range and Pai does better at short-range. Now, where differences will arise is in how much these differences account for, and from my perspective, in this game, opening someone up is more useful than damage output once you have. Again, the slower characters who work harder to open someone up are typically viewed as lower-tier, and the faster, mix-up, momentum junkies are seen as higher tier. And that’s basically what’s going on here. The main deciding factor for me comes down to the momentum thing. Ryu can hit hard, but once he hits hard, you’re usually going back to pseudo-neutral, giving Pai a chance to get back into the area she excels. On the flipside, Pai can keep Ryu on the guessing defensive for basically the entire round. So, to me, this is 6-4. Pai’s mixups are forcing Ryu into frequent guesses where the chance of him guessing right is significantly lower than Pai’s chances. Thus, Ryu is working harder to net his win, and is fighting uphill.
Rachel 6-4
First of all: Rachel is not all slow or whatever. Get that out of your head (if it was ever in there). One frame slower than Ryu on the jab, but it gives her far superior mix-ups than Ryu’s gives him. They both share the same mid speed. So, moving on: Rachel has better mix-ups. Not only from strings, but also as pokes. She has better lows. I know a lot of Rachel players like to contest that for some reason, but it’s true. Her lows are better than Ryu’s, hands-down. Rachel hits hard. Rachel has nice SDS kicks. Rachel possesses the superior oki. Rachel is damn heavy. Rachel can play stun-launch very well. Rachel has a nice reset OH. Rachel is safer. So, why do I feel this falls to Ryu? Honestly, I’m going to be honest: I don’t know. He has superior holds. I can identify that. But he has better holds than a lot of other characters that I feel give him a lot of problems. Hayabusa also has the superior crush capacity, since beyond 1P and her sidestep, she’s basically a pillar the entire fight. Ryu has nice highs, so being able to toss them out is handy. This might honestly be an equal MU and I just haven’t fought enough top-level Rachels to realize it. But for some reason, after the 2K tweak, Hayabusa seems to be able to manage her quite well.
Rig 5-5
Rig’s an interesting one since he uses less punches than basically anyone in the roster. Thus, your Izuna holds aren't coming in as handy here. Rig has the better speed, way better frame advantage and way better mix-ups. He also beats Ryu in combo damage. He can net more damage from his combos and juggles. However, he lacks Ryu’s throw power (hello, 41236T nerf), and he lacks Ryu’s guarantees. Ryu can net big damage off of a few proper, but risky, reads. Rig has more options and mix-ups, but has to make quite a few of them to reach Ryu’s damage. Ryu also excels at long range, and his ongyoin parry works surprising well to negate bending stance. Both work great with the environment, especially ceilings. Ultimately, I feel their pros and cons are balanced in a way that they are a fairly even fight.
Sarah 3-7
This bitch. When I say that people underestimate her, this is what I’m talking about. Now, you’ve probably heard all the trendy people saying that the game’s mechanics do not allow for any match-ups beyond 5-5 or 4-6, and I understand the concept and the approach. And for the most part, I’m in agreement. However, if I consider two players of equal skill playing Sarah vs Ryu, do I really see Hayabusa winning 40% of the time? No, I do not. In practice have I seen it? No, I have not. I could go on for a while with this, but essentially at any given time, Sarah has a million options that beat out 90% of Hayabusa’s. Overcoming this involves near perfect-reads to religiously hold/crush her attacks time-after-time consistently throughout a match. And if you do it, you’re not Gen Fu or Bass where you can use set-ups to try and perpetuate your momentum. You’ve basically gotta throw it back to neutral after you get your damage in, and it’s ridiculous. When you’re putting in that much effort into that lopsided match and someone tells you that 7-3 is impossible, it’s really hard to swallow. Now Ryu does have the range advantage. Fat chance creating that distance you want, but if you manage it, yeah, you’ve got it. Ryu technically also has environment, throw and hold damage as well, but Sarah’s combo damage is every bit as heavy as his. And this doesn’t compensate for Sarah’s crazy advantage in every other situation. The closest thing I can compare this to is trying to kill a Rhino with a spork. So yeah. I’m sorry if I’m not on board with the whole “5-5 and 6-4 only” thing. I’m not trying to be a sore loser or anything, I just genuinely do feel this is legitimately 3-7 in Sarah’s favor. And if it is not, it is still definitely his most troubling match-up.
Tina 5-5
So, as grapplers, Tina and Ryu actually have similar approaches. So, let us compare them, shall we? Tina has superior throws all-round. Tina has superior OHs. Tina has superior mix-ups. Tina has superior speed. They have comparable hit damage. Both have some nice oki options, though Tina’s I feel take an advantage. Ryu excels slightly in stuns. Both have some nice range tools, but Ryu’s are better. Comparable crushes. Ryu has better environment utilization. So, it kinda sounds like Tina has the advantage here, and in a way I feel like she does. It’s just not enough that I would consider it 6-4, especially with Ryu being able to out-space her. I personally feel it’s nearly even.
Zack 5-5
So
Codemaster92163 seemed to think that this fell slightly into Ryu’s favor and I just have to disagree. Zack has the superior speed, superior mix-ups, superior safety/advantage, incredible delays, tools to shut-down Hayabusa’s range options, some dastardly crushes, reset throws for momentum, some good oki options, etc. If it weren’t for Ryu’s raw hold/throw damage and ability to bypass the stun game (even though he’s so good at it he doesn’t frequently do that), I would award it 6-4 Zack. I should also note that Ryu's environment damage is better. Anyway, it’s basically same-old, same-old. Fast, mix-up characters that can hit on all levels provide problems for Hayabusa up-close, so he tries to out-footsie them and compensate for his neutral game with big throws and hold damage. Zack is very, very problematic.
