Koei Tecmo is made up of six fairly small, but talented divisions (Gust, Kou Shibusawa, Midas, Omega Force, Ruby Party, Team NINJA) and of the six Team NINJA appears to be taking firm control of the company's overall financial forecast going through 2023 pertaining to game sales revenue and overall player count. This business article aims to observe recent Koei Tecmo financials, the future, and should also decipher why Koei Tecmo's game sales have fallen in some areas specifically within different teams and have broken records in other areas; especially with their Golden Goose studio: Team NINJA.
Recent sales may signal to some that Team NINJA should expand as a company, but also plays with the idea that more Team NINJA properties should be crossing over into other Koei Tecmo divisions and products. The Marie Rose costume in the latest Fatal Frame release was a solid idea, but the Team NINJA incentive should have been even stronger than that as seen in past Warrior games from Omega Force. A better blending of company properties (as seen in the past) would amount to more game and merch sales from their customers.
As proven alone by growing player interest with Game Pass and improved XBOX system sales, Koei Tecmo should also consider bolstering their portfolio of titles on XBOX S|X. The Atelier Ryza series for example would be an outstanding fit for Game Pass as it would not only garner more interest for the game but would also complete the sale figure they could attain for each title just by having it on PC Game Pass and XBOX.
Atelier Ryza 3 has reviewed excellently on Metacritic (even better than Wo Long: Fallen Dynasty) but the game failed to even scrape the surface of Wo Long: Fallen Dynasty's initial interest. The main female lead character of Atelier Ryza is incredibly attractive, and some DOA players would probably compromise with the character's appearance in the next 3D fighting game if it meant there was a new game planned to begin with.
Atelier's first week in Japan (31,140) on the Nintendo Switch wasn't too bad and only behind Capcom's juggernaut Resident Evil 4 remake. Playstation 5's sales were lower at 17,240 which could make one think just how good are Sony's third-party exclusive paychecks with Game Pass and absurd Nintendo Switch sales generating more vast interest and revenue? How much longer will other platforms be dehydrated of Koei Tecmo titles (Nioh, Ronin, Atelier, some Three Kingdoms) due to Sony involving themselves with side-deal paychecks, seeking territory publishing rights from smaller Japanese companies and barricading games from XBOX cutthroat style where they can?
This is not the only title that would have performed great on Game Pass, nor is this said with biased intent, but when you try to get people to buy a new IP that people are not sure they want or if it could be met with mixed reviews, Game Pass seals the deal of complete failure with maximized exposure at launch and a paycheck (with flexibility) from Microsoft. Wild Hearts is a prime example. Not only did the game come at a higher price-tag, but its combined interest and sales couldn't have in a million years met Koei Tecmo's expectations with Wild Hearts being considered a complete 'box office bomb' at launch seeing as how it was published by conglomerate Electronic Arts. The game has sold less than 40,000 copies in Japan and failed to break 30,000 concurrent players on Steam.
While Wild Hearts had a very below-average outlook, Fatal Frame / Project Zero has been one of Koei Tecmo's biggest blunders in years moving around 10,000 copies in Japan for its opening week (which is as low as Koei Tecmo's Winning Post annual franchise). The remaster's failure in the market is further highlighted by its Steam numbers which did not go over 1,500 concurrent players.
None of these games performed poorly within the general consensus of reviews; nobody is denying that, where Koei Tecmo dropped the ball was completely publishing. Proof of this is observing Wo Long: Fallen Dynasty's sales and interest. XBOX community 'True Achievements' reported that over 85,000 tracked users played Wo Long in its first week. That's not sales and total Game Pass players, that is tracked users for their website that use the service to keep their game achievements in order. The game also sold 62,000 copies in its Japan opening week sales which is significantly higher than the rest of Koei Tecmo's games released this year.
Team NINJA broke company records with the Steam edition of Wo Long as well bringing in an all-time high of 75,906 concurrent players. More Steam players than any other game in Koei Tecmo history. Without even having a copy of Koei Tecmo's Q1 & Q2 financials in our hands we can break down estimates and make educational observations of what the real numbers will be. Even if Wild Hearts, Fatal Frame & Atelier Ryza 3's sales are initially poor; they will all continue to sell and create larger bases like all games thanks to digital storefronts - but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to confirm that Team NINJA is making the big profits of 2023 with one game alone.
Team NINJA's Dead or Alive: Xtreme Venus Vacation also continues to break records on Steam (DMM version numbers not included) with a new all-time player record of 11,284 while inching closer to a 5,000 average player-base per day. Team NINJA's mega-hit Nioh 2 is also remaining consistent with about 3,000 players per day on Steam alone. After being released for years now these titles remain consistent to players.
The latest Famitsu interview article that came out pertaining to Team NINJA Studios was translated in many different ways and it point-blank confused almost everyone that read it. Fumihiko Yasuda said they wanted to release more games per year, but if Rise of the Ronin is coming at the end of 2024 that is a much longer wait for a Team NINJA game than what we are used to, and with no new announcements yet (save Wo Long DLC) it makes everything extremely questionable.
I questioned Master about this recently and picked his brain a bit and he said he knows the "exact date for Rise of the Ronin" and will have something to report on the title soon. My professional guess is that Ronin will receive an earlier release date than originally posted and Ronin will be the next news-chain to consumers for the next year. This would possibly allow for a new game announcement for 2023 or 2024 with a late 2024 to 2025 release date.
I'm quite confident NINJA GAIDEN or Dead or Alive will be next in line. Koei Tecmo leaker, Hiroaki Morita hasn't been wrong yet, and claims NINJA GAIDEN will be the next Team NINJA game announced. You can off it as a rumor as much as you want, but it doesn't change his perfect track record within the business. Dead or Alive is still a potential candidate because of the mere mention of the series in their official slides at the G-STAR conference. Keep in mind that Fumihiko Yasuda only quoted what he said being talked about at the Keynote being taken out of context as misinformation and failed to mention their official Team NINJA slides with official translations.
Team NINJA made a comment that Final Fantasy Origin isn't out of the question for a sequel, but I can't get a lot of information from that pipeline because Master is hardly involved with the team that worked on FFO and it probably wouldn't prevent another Team NINJA game from happening even if another FFO title was announced based on specific teams alone. The first game in the series is now available on Steam and has ended with Team NINJA DLC and support.
Since the release of Wo Long, I've been asked: "Well, if Wo Long is so successful, what's stopping them from doing another one? Or another Nioh?" The answer on Nioh is that it's tabled until further notice, even if it's not out of the realm of possibility, it's an extremely low possibility.
Don't jump to conclusions thinking Koei Tecmo sees dollar signs with Wo Long. The success of Wo Long isn't just attributed to it being a great game, but that for a change, Koei Tecmo took all of the marketing steps necessary to sell it and create interest. Whether it was DOA or NINJA Gaiden or Nioh - it would have attained similar results if not better following Wo Long's marketing & release strategy.
The current landscape of Team NINJA with some expansion could allow for a new Dead or Alive title. I've been asked many times if there is anyone with DOA knowledge left at Team NINJA and the answer is yes. Masakazu Hirayama has been given more responsibilities at Team NINJA and he was a designer for DOA5: Ultimate & DOA5: Last Round; the two highest revered titles in DOA competitive history.
Expect Team NINJA news and announcements soon. We look forward to keeping you updated here at Free Step Dodge on all the latest from Koei Tecmo & Team NINJA.
Koei Tecmo Business Overview (Q1-Q2)
Recent sales may signal to some that Team NINJA should expand as a company, but also plays with the idea that more Team NINJA properties should be crossing over into other Koei Tecmo divisions and products. The Marie Rose costume in the latest Fatal Frame release was a solid idea, but the Team NINJA incentive should have been even stronger than that as seen in past Warrior games from Omega Force. A better blending of company properties (as seen in the past) would amount to more game and merch sales from their customers.
As proven alone by growing player interest with Game Pass and improved XBOX system sales, Koei Tecmo should also consider bolstering their portfolio of titles on XBOX S|X. The Atelier Ryza series for example would be an outstanding fit for Game Pass as it would not only garner more interest for the game but would also complete the sale figure they could attain for each title just by having it on PC Game Pass and XBOX.
Atelier Ryza 3 has reviewed excellently on Metacritic (even better than Wo Long: Fallen Dynasty) but the game failed to even scrape the surface of Wo Long: Fallen Dynasty's initial interest. The main female lead character of Atelier Ryza is incredibly attractive, and some DOA players would probably compromise with the character's appearance in the next 3D fighting game if it meant there was a new game planned to begin with.
Atelier's first week in Japan (31,140) on the Nintendo Switch wasn't too bad and only behind Capcom's juggernaut Resident Evil 4 remake. Playstation 5's sales were lower at 17,240 which could make one think just how good are Sony's third-party exclusive paychecks with Game Pass and absurd Nintendo Switch sales generating more vast interest and revenue? How much longer will other platforms be dehydrated of Koei Tecmo titles (Nioh, Ronin, Atelier, some Three Kingdoms) due to Sony involving themselves with side-deal paychecks, seeking territory publishing rights from smaller Japanese companies and barricading games from XBOX cutthroat style where they can?
This is not the only title that would have performed great on Game Pass, nor is this said with biased intent, but when you try to get people to buy a new IP that people are not sure they want or if it could be met with mixed reviews, Game Pass seals the deal of complete failure with maximized exposure at launch and a paycheck (with flexibility) from Microsoft. Wild Hearts is a prime example. Not only did the game come at a higher price-tag, but its combined interest and sales couldn't have in a million years met Koei Tecmo's expectations with Wild Hearts being considered a complete 'box office bomb' at launch seeing as how it was published by conglomerate Electronic Arts. The game has sold less than 40,000 copies in Japan and failed to break 30,000 concurrent players on Steam.
While Wild Hearts had a very below-average outlook, Fatal Frame / Project Zero has been one of Koei Tecmo's biggest blunders in years moving around 10,000 copies in Japan for its opening week (which is as low as Koei Tecmo's Winning Post annual franchise). The remaster's failure in the market is further highlighted by its Steam numbers which did not go over 1,500 concurrent players.
None of these games performed poorly within the general consensus of reviews; nobody is denying that, where Koei Tecmo dropped the ball was completely publishing. Proof of this is observing Wo Long: Fallen Dynasty's sales and interest. XBOX community 'True Achievements' reported that over 85,000 tracked users played Wo Long in its first week. That's not sales and total Game Pass players, that is tracked users for their website that use the service to keep their game achievements in order. The game also sold 62,000 copies in its Japan opening week sales which is significantly higher than the rest of Koei Tecmo's games released this year.
Team NINJA broke company records with the Steam edition of Wo Long as well bringing in an all-time high of 75,906 concurrent players. More Steam players than any other game in Koei Tecmo history. Without even having a copy of Koei Tecmo's Q1 & Q2 financials in our hands we can break down estimates and make educational observations of what the real numbers will be. Even if Wild Hearts, Fatal Frame & Atelier Ryza 3's sales are initially poor; they will all continue to sell and create larger bases like all games thanks to digital storefronts - but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to confirm that Team NINJA is making the big profits of 2023 with one game alone.
Team NINJA's Dead or Alive: Xtreme Venus Vacation also continues to break records on Steam (DMM version numbers not included) with a new all-time player record of 11,284 while inching closer to a 5,000 average player-base per day. Team NINJA's mega-hit Nioh 2 is also remaining consistent with about 3,000 players per day on Steam alone. After being released for years now these titles remain consistent to players.
Company 2023 Future & Community Questions Addressed
Koei Tecmo recently changed their slogan to: 'Level up Your Happiness' and shortly after that announcement Team NINJA's Masaaki Yamagiwa stated that he wanted to take Team NINJA to the next level. With Wo Long's release he has made his statement viable and believable. Not only should Team NINJA Studios expand, but they should also consider bringing their legendary franchises: Dead or Alive & NINJA GAIDEN to this new age of business.
The latest Famitsu interview article that came out pertaining to Team NINJA Studios was translated in many different ways and it point-blank confused almost everyone that read it. Fumihiko Yasuda said they wanted to release more games per year, but if Rise of the Ronin is coming at the end of 2024 that is a much longer wait for a Team NINJA game than what we are used to, and with no new announcements yet (save Wo Long DLC) it makes everything extremely questionable.
I questioned Master about this recently and picked his brain a bit and he said he knows the "exact date for Rise of the Ronin" and will have something to report on the title soon. My professional guess is that Ronin will receive an earlier release date than originally posted and Ronin will be the next news-chain to consumers for the next year. This would possibly allow for a new game announcement for 2023 or 2024 with a late 2024 to 2025 release date.
I'm quite confident NINJA GAIDEN or Dead or Alive will be next in line. Koei Tecmo leaker, Hiroaki Morita hasn't been wrong yet, and claims NINJA GAIDEN will be the next Team NINJA game announced. You can off it as a rumor as much as you want, but it doesn't change his perfect track record within the business. Dead or Alive is still a potential candidate because of the mere mention of the series in their official slides at the G-STAR conference. Keep in mind that Fumihiko Yasuda only quoted what he said being talked about at the Keynote being taken out of context as misinformation and failed to mention their official Team NINJA slides with official translations.
Team NINJA made a comment that Final Fantasy Origin isn't out of the question for a sequel, but I can't get a lot of information from that pipeline because Master is hardly involved with the team that worked on FFO and it probably wouldn't prevent another Team NINJA game from happening even if another FFO title was announced based on specific teams alone. The first game in the series is now available on Steam and has ended with Team NINJA DLC and support.
Since the release of Wo Long, I've been asked: "Well, if Wo Long is so successful, what's stopping them from doing another one? Or another Nioh?" The answer on Nioh is that it's tabled until further notice, even if it's not out of the realm of possibility, it's an extremely low possibility.
Don't jump to conclusions thinking Koei Tecmo sees dollar signs with Wo Long. The success of Wo Long isn't just attributed to it being a great game, but that for a change, Koei Tecmo took all of the marketing steps necessary to sell it and create interest. Whether it was DOA or NINJA Gaiden or Nioh - it would have attained similar results if not better following Wo Long's marketing & release strategy.
The current landscape of Team NINJA with some expansion could allow for a new Dead or Alive title. I've been asked many times if there is anyone with DOA knowledge left at Team NINJA and the answer is yes. Masakazu Hirayama has been given more responsibilities at Team NINJA and he was a designer for DOA5: Ultimate & DOA5: Last Round; the two highest revered titles in DOA competitive history.
Expect Team NINJA news and announcements soon. We look forward to keeping you updated here at Free Step Dodge on all the latest from Koei Tecmo & Team NINJA.
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